2% day

Today is the second anniversary of being told I had a 2% chance of making 2 years.
Here I am, 2 years on – playing golf and without any obvious signs of cancer.

Small celebration in the Howard household tonight.

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Maxed out or abundance?

Maxed-out or abundance? Paul Gilding, Peter Diamandis debate

Is the Earth maxed out, or should we be optimistic about being able to solve our future? At TED 2012, Paul Gilding made the case for the former, and Peter Diamandis argued for the latter, and then they debated.

I am with Blueflames and Peter to a substantial degree.
The earth is far from “full”, and the specific technologies we are using today are pushing hard at some boundaries in some places.

We need to do some rapid change in technology, and neither governments nor corporations are good at rapid change (they are inherently conservative).

It seems to me that the major problem we face is neither corporations nor governments (rather they are symptoms of the root cause).
The root issue seems to be one of a common misunderstanding, that human value and monetary value are equivalent, and that by optimising the one we automatically optimise the other. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Money is a market valuation measure, and as such includes a scarcity multiplier.

The sort of abundance that the billions of poor need, the sort that includes food, sanitation, computers and communication, education, and transportation – this sort of abundance we can easily supply, but not in a way that returns “profit” (that ever expanding proxy for greed).

I spend as little time as possible in the economic system, making enough money to survive on, and as much time as possible in the “voluntary sector” – Lions club, Fishing Club, Golf Club, nature conservation, regional water management, etc.

Money is a tool, and it is a very dangerous tool, to be used with great care.
Letting money become a master in any way, is a very dangerous thing.
Our society is almost pathological in this attribute.
Yet it is “only” a relatively small matter of understanding, of belief, and it can change, very rapidly.
Minds can be freed.

As Neo said – I didn’t come here to tell you how it would end, only how it would begin.

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Compassion

Question of the Day May 14, 2012 – Compassionate And ‘Giving’, And Selfish And ‘Taking’

What drives some people to be compassionate and ‘giving’, and others to be selfish and ‘taking’?

This seems a little like one of those “have you stopped beating your grandmother yet?” questions.
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It seems based upon false premises.
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It seems to me that all people are both compassionate and giving, and selfish and taking.
All that varies is the specific measures in specific contexts.
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Without a certain level of selfishness, one dies from lack of resources.
Without a certain level of compassion, one cannot exist in a society – and thus one dies from lack of resources.
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Thus it is absolutely essential that we all have both sets of qualities.
Both are needed for survival.
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What varies is the balance.
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I think that perhaps we could all do with a bit more awareness of our need for both.
It is not a matter of one or the other.
Both are absolutely required.

[followed by]

Hi Andrew,
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The thing to get is that everyone does things to optimize their own advantage, at some level.
When viewed from one level, things may appear to be all one way or the other, and I contend that there is always a level at which they are in balance. It may not be a level that we are comfortable with ourselves, and it will exist.
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At the genetic level, it is possible for genes for altruism to survive in a population if the expression of those genes gives greater advantage to the population than the cost of the loss of the altruistic life, then the gene can survive. If the gene is in collaboration with others that detect and remove individuals that do not have the altruism gene, then altruism can survive and prosper.
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Similarly at each successive level.
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In order to learn language, a human being must possess at least 3 levels of both selfishness and compassion/altruism in some measure.
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As we grow as children, we learn from the mix of our culture, our genetics and our circumstances, a set of belief and understandings that guide us in our choices.
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Viewed from a distance, these can look very different.
Viewed up close, they are almost always essentially the same – someone doing the best they can with what they’ve got in the circumstances in which they happen to find themselves.
Some are much more fortunate than others in the circumstances they happen to be in.
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We all form habits in our lives.
Some of those habits are of distinction, in the patterns we are able to see when under stress.
Some of those habits are of action, in how we react to the situations we see.
Some of these systems tend to reinforce each other, others cancel each other out.
It is a fascinating study.
And at each level, there is a level of choice, of individuality, of honour, or the lack thereof.
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The whys are so complex, at so many different levels, of chemistry, of genes, of culture, of honour, of potentially infinite creative levels.
We may be able to understand some of the general principles at each level, but never all of the specifics.
Why do you do what you do?
Why do I do what I do?
In the general I can answer, in general forms.
In the specific, if I am honest, I have almost no idea!

[followed by]

There are some very interesting ideas in both what Torch and Deb say, and I find that while I agree in part, it is not the whole story.
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Torch wrote a lot about acceptance and unconditional love, vs reward and punishment.
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I don’t see it as an “either or” situation.
For me, it seems that I can love someone, while using punishment to put in place a boundary.
And as much as possible I try not to impose boundaries, and it seems that that attitude itself imposes boundaries. Neither of my children have had the normal social boundaries, which has lead to them being isolated in their local communities. Both have managed to find peers in much wider communities, and it hasn’t been (isn’t) an easy journey for either of them.
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Then there is the aspects of how some systems respond.
Some systems have “threshold values”, beyond which the response of the system changes significantly.
There are “tipping points”.
We see it often in people, they get to a certain point and they “lose it” (whatever “it” is), and become something else.
We see it in many levels of physical and biological systems.
We see it in earthquakes and volcanoes – where pressures can quietly build up over hundreds or thousands of years, and then be suddenly released in events that are not specifically predictable as to exactly when they will occur, yet they are predictable in a probabilistic sense, that sooner or later they must occur.
We see it in cars, where we can retain control up to a certain point, and beyond that point, the car “spins out”.
Sometimes energies can build up in multiple different systems at the same time, and the release may be triggered in entirely unexpected ways, and sometimes such energies can be released in ways that are not as damaging as other possibilities.
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Then there is the aspect of choice.

Like in the old zen proverb about how we build our personalities – little by little, as a drip of water fills a bowl, we make choices for good, or little by little, as a drip of water fills a bowl, we make choices for other than good. Leaving aside the definition of good – one gets the idea. Who we are is the result of many small choices. Each may seem insignificant in and of itself, yet added together they become us.

Small and repeated action build habits that over time become larger systems with larger consequences.

To the extent that each and every one of us brings the light of our attention to developing understanding and compassion for ourselves, and everything and every one around us, then to this extent; we bring compassion into being.

To the extent that we are able to see that our own long term interests are tightly bound to the long term interests of everyone else; then we bring compassion into being, and our selfishness can look more like selflessness, until it becomes indistinguishable.

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Then there is the systems level.
To the extent that we can create feelings of security in and for others, we encourage long term thinking.

The more uncertain things become, the greater the “discount rate” that people apply to future outcomes, and the more short term their thinking becomes.

Security does not mean staying the same.
Security means having confidence that the inevitable change will be beneficial rather than harmful.

So in this sense, the more we can encourage people to question everything, and to educate themselves about anything and everything that interests them, and to actively work at cultivating as broad an interest set as possible; then to that extent we promote compassion in the world. (And conversely to the extent that we diminish security, promote fraud {by withholding either our questions or our answers}, then to that extent we contribute to selfishness and taking.)

In the past, many have used “blind faith” as a tool to bring about feelings of security. To the extent that such systems have worked, it seems that their effect is very superficial, and that as the insecurities in a system become more obvious, the “blind faith” loses out to the obvious reality – and the systems fail.

To me, it seems that there is only one direction that offers both freedom and long term security, and that is to encourage everyone to question everything. Like democracy, it is slow and expensive, yet it builds secure foundations to approach an uncertain future.

[followed by]

Hi Deb

There is one great untruth in what you wrote – and that is the idea that what happens on the macro scale is beyond your ability to impact.
You have no idea what your ability to impact the macro scale may be.
You have no idea how a conversation you have with a stranger may impact how that stranger deals with another, leading through a chain of such interactions to world changing outcomes.

I contend that it is the inevitable chains of such things that create our reality.
It is all those little choices that all add up, moment by moment.
In so far as we bring our highest self to each of them, moment by moment, we make a difference – we change the world, we alter what would otherwise have happened, and who knows the ultimate consequences.

So I say what we each choose, in every moment, is important, and is, in a very real sense, world changing.

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Mothers Day

Question of the Day May 13, 2012 – Mother’s Day

What was your Mother’s Day like last year and THIS year? What did your family do for you/what did you do for your Mother? Did you enjoy it? Please tell us about it…

My mum has been dead for over a decade, so today was spending some time with the mother of our daughter.
After Ailsa got home from being the church organist/pianist, we went out for lunch together at the local Wholefoods Cafe (Hislops). Very nice vegan food available for me, and we had a nice time together.

When we came home, Ailsa slept much of the afternoon (while I read and wrote – mostly on freedom, and the evolution of ideas about liberty).

I have made a lasagne for dinner for Ailsa and Jewelia, and have done corn on the cob, and a baked potato for myself (all currently in the oven).

A little while ago I gave Ailsa a half glass of a nice wine I bought for the occasion.

Better get back to food prep.

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Talking to self

Question of the Day May 11, 2012 – Talking To Self

Do you talk to yourself? Do you answer or isn’t that an issue?

Yep
I often have internal conversations.
It makes sense to me, because when talking, I am not usually aware of exactly what I am going to say next until I say it.

Having the ability to consider what that part of me is likely to do before it does it is sometimes useful.

Sometimes it is simply powerful to get a subconscious perspective on some issue, by engaging my “subconscious self” in a conversation with the higher awareness self. This is not a matter of control of self, more a case of evolving both conscious and subconscious through engagement.

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Courtesy

Question of the Day May 9, 2012 – Courtesy on a bus

This question was also put to me by the sixteen year old boy from a Himalayan country about four years ago.

“Every morning I go to school by bus and go to the bus stop early to get a good seat. However, it most often happens that very soon on the journey and old person or a pregnant woman boards the bus where, because the bus is crowded, they have nowhere to sit and I give them my seat.
Should I go early for the bus when all I seem to have to do is give up my seat?”

I have very rarely ridden on buses, mostly I drive, where I give up my seat for no one. Though I do pick up Hitchhikers ;)

As to the question – the only answer that really matters is – what really makes you feel best?
Ask the question every time, to the deepest level you can reach, and see what answer you come up with.

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Ignorance and Power

Flawed, Ignorant and Dangerous: A Bain Capital Partner’s Worldview

Hi John
Your sentence “Ignorance, when coupled with power, is what’s truly dangerous to civilized society” is one of the greatest sentences I have read.

POLpursun correctly states that the purpose of economic activity is the well being of people.
What many have mistakenly done is to go from that, to inferring that more economic activity must necessarily mean greater economic well-being. Such an inference is a logical fallacy, that is easy to prove with a simple example.
If someone lacks only one thing in their life, and they get enough money to buy it, and do so, then they have all they need for their well being. Further economic activity is simply churn, without any increase in well-being.

When people take economic activity as a proxy for human well being, humanity is in serious crisis.

The economic drive to extend the shelf life of food has had (and is having) a huge impact on human health. It is (in combination with the huge intake of animal protein), without any shadow of reasonable doubt, responsible for most of the obesity, heart disease, and cancer epidemics currently facing humanity.

On a personal note, I was essentially a carnivore for 55 years, and it wasn’t until being told 2 years ago that the melanoma in my system had metastasised to my liver, and I would probably be dead in 6 weeks, with a 2% chance of living 2 years; that I seriously started looking at the causes of cancer. After 3 weeks of intensive study, I decided to try a strict vegan diet with high dose vitamin C. It took 3 months for the last of the tumours to disappear, and I lost 17Kgs. Pleased to report that I am still vegan, alive and well, and with not trace of any tumours in over 15 months.
I am now, on the basis of many months of study, convinced that diet, driven by economic (rather than well-being) factors (ie how to make more profit, rather than how to improve the well being of people) is responsible. We need to alter the incentive structures that have delivered our current state of affairs if we want something different.

Money and markets make very useful tools, but very poor masters.

[followed by]

Hi Tim
One person at a time, one conversation at a time!
(Just as you are doing. We need to work through our wider networks, as well as within groups such as this.)
And we leave trails wherever possible, so that if someone’s interest in sparked, they can follow a trail, rather than having to blaze one themselves (which is a slow and hard work).

[followed by]

Hi POLpursun
Just one point.
You said that natural systems are self correcting,, which is not always true.
Many natural systems have evolved feedback systems that tend to maintain the system within certain limits, and many more are open.
Life as a whole seems to be an open system.
Life is continually evolving, in response to changes in the environment, and the opportunities produced by recent evolution.
The illusion of the 60s conception of life as being in some sort of grand equilibrium, until humans came along and stuffed it up, has been clearly debunked. It simply is not so.

Life is continually exploring the possibility space available to it.
Humanity seems to be uniquely endowed with ability in this respect, if we have an appropriate environment.
We need to sort out our systems, and create systems that deliver an abundance of necessities to every human being, and leave plenty for the non-human natural world.

My preference is to see that as much diversity of life as possible survives.
I would like to like to see humanity decide to limit itself to using no more than 50% of the planet surface, and no more than 10% of the incoming solar energy.
If we need more energy for anything, then we need to create that technology in space. Technology for that is simple enough if we stop trying to launch soft humans into space, and instead send tough machines that we can control remotely. If we can build machines to survive 200g, then a 30km long linear motor could accelerate them to geostationary orbit for an energy cost of about 18KWHrs/Kg (under $4,000 per ton at today’s retail electricity costs). A little bit of ablative shielding on the nose, and its a quick trip to orbit.
Most of the cost of rockets is the cost of accelerating the fuel. If the only thing accelerated is payload – the numbers are very different.

[followed by]

Hi POLpursun

Agree with all you say.
And it is a simple fact that nothing can continue exponential growth ad infinitum – everything has limits.
So that really isn’t the issue – in and of itself.

The real issue is much deeper and closer to home – it is markets and market valuation (aka money).
Markets are a really useful tool, and a very poor master.
Markets tend to make people think that human value and market value are equivalent – which they clearly are not.

When we were reliant on the work of others we needed markets.
Now we are capable of automating all the processes required to sustain humans.

We now have the technical capacity to move beyond a world of fighting for survival, a world of scarcity, a world of necessary competition, of fear and uncertainty and anxiety.
We can choose to create a world of abundance for all, of cooperation, of security.
It is actually quite easy, and quite ecologically stable, provided we do away with the concepts of money and profit.

That latter requirement is difficult for many to conceive of, particularly economists.

Just imagine a world in which everything you need is so abundant that it has no market value – it is just there for the using.
Note that I said need, and not want.

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