How likely is it that we have a future

How likely do you think the chances are that our high tech civilization will last?

[ 12/July/22 ]

My best estimate is slightly better than even chances – about 60/40.

And that requires that most people are able to get over their inbuilt addiction to simplicity and accept the complexity and uncertainty that is evidently present.

It is hard to see past the obvious presence of competition in evolving systems, and see the essential role of cooperation in the emergence and survival of all levels of complexity.

The current social dogma that competition can solve all problems in all contexts is not simply wrong, it is self terminating – necessarily. Competition is only survivable if it is built on a cooperative base.

Any failure to accept that will cause that level of complexity to fail.

Anyone who thinks that planning can solve all problems, has failed to comprehend the fundamental uncertainty present in complex systems.

Sure, we need to plan, to use the best information and concept sets available, and part of that is accepting that complex systems generate novelty eternally, and require eternal experimentation (trial and error) in order to survive.

Part of planning has to be, knowing when to experiment, when planning has reached its limits of utility.

All brains necessarily have a tendency to prefer simplicity over complexity, and all need to accept that truly complex systems (such as we clearly are) generate novelty, eternally, necessarily. Over constraining such systems causes failure – necessarily.

So it is complex, and there are fundamental uncertainties and unknowns, and the more people who accept that, and act responsibly as a result, the greater the probability that we will all survive with reasonable degrees of freedom and security and choice.