[ 31 /March/22]
This seems to be closer to reality:
Seem to both be clear that the situation is complex, with a significant degree of real democracy and some far right factions, and that the Russian claims are an over simplification of a complex situation.
Russia has some real issues, and they have started a war of expansion.
[followed by – 1 April]
The only way of having a reasonable probability of reliable information is to have multiple independent trust networks, and to have as many as possible of them interlinked into other networks by known reliable agents.
It is yet another deeply complex strategic space – based in cooperation, and vulnerable to multiple levels of exploitation, and requiring ever evolving ecosystems of cheat detection and mitigation systems.
And wars of expansion cannot be acceptable at any level.
We have to get used to the idea of taking the time required to build trust and to come up to speed with the complexities present, and to be prepared for the risks and responsibilities necessarily present in any such complex and fundamentally uncertain reality.
Respect for diversity, at any and all levels that are not a real and direct threat to existence, must be present (from all levels and instances of agents).
And I completely agree that the situation is deeply more complex than any of the simple narratives out there, and looked at from a survivable “game space” perspective, is extremely dangerous.
We must have fundamentally cooperative games, that are fundamentally respectful of diversity, if the notions of security and freedom are to have any reasonable probability of long term expression. The sorts of low level hegemonic games being played at present are not survivable. The agents playing them need to wake up and start seriously looking at the strategic spaces they are inhabiting, before they destroy the systemic basis of their (and our) existence.
And that become less probable as the stress on those agents increases, because human neural networks are (necessarily) evolved to simplify contexts under stress. At some point that necessarily becomes self terminating. It is a bit like earthquakes in Kaikoura, impossible to predict exactly when, but certain none the less.