What is really going on in this world?

What is really going on in this world?

[ 24/July/21 ]

Lots of different things, lots of different stories.

If you are capable of complex abstract thought, then one can view evolution as search across increasing dimensions of complexity.

When one does that it becomes clear that all new levels of complexity are built upon new levels of cooperation, and it is cooperation (not competition) that is fundamental to the emergence and survival of complexity (competition is actually destructive of complexity as it forces local optimization of “spaces” to some set of available minima).

When one can start to see “search” happening across increasingly complex and abstract spaces; across the infinite “space” of non-binary logics (logics with more truth states than simply True/False – the next simplest being True/False/Undecided); then the picture of what is really “going on” gets really “interesting”, as multiple levels and instances of systems exist and interact simultaneously.

When one appreciates that, for a fully loaded processor, the most efficient search possible is the fully random search; then the picture that one “sees” starts to make sense in whole new dimensions.

What seems to be going on is “evolution”, the exponentially increasing emergence of new levels of systems using new levels of “search” across the space of all possible systems and all possible logics looking for high probability solutions to the problem of continued existence.

All such systems necessarily embody multiple levels of bias.

The reality in which we live seems, beyond any shadow of reasonable doubt, to be more complex than any computational entity is capable of modeling in anything even remotely approaching real time. So all entities (all levels) are necessarily forced to use simplistic models, and all of those will have failure modalities.

Most entities seem to be essentially unaware that their sensory and neural systems have these multiple layers of simplification, and think that reality is actually as simple as it seems to them. Sorry – not so.

So we have a very complex reality, with multiple classes and instances of agents and agency present, many of them working from very simple models, and the overall context is changing at a rate that has no real historical precedent.

We have multiple levels of existential risk present, and multiple levels of agents working to avoid those risks. One of the biggest risks is the use of simple models that reduce truly complex realities down to simple binaries like Right/Wrong, True/False, Good/Bad etc.

It is true that any level of structure requires some level of reliability in boundary conditions in order to survive, but such reliability does not need to be 100%. Something approximating classical causality has to exist in order for complexity to emerge, but it does not need to be “classical causality”, any large enough collection of chaos constrained by probability functions will actually achieve the same outcome; and if one actually does the numbers, there are more quantum time units in a single “tick” of an atomic clock, than there have been ticks of that atomic clock in the age of the universe – that is a reasonably large collection.

So the world seems to have a great deal “going on” in it, far more than anyone or anything can deal with in detail, and far more than most have ever imagined. And much of it seems to be exploratory, necessarily, with no historical precedent available.

So – “interesting times”.

And for all the very many, very real, levels of dangers, I am actually optimistic about our long term survival (60/40) both as individuals and as species (at whatever level one is capable of appreciating either set of concepts).

[followed by – In response to a separate answer – …”In 2022 there will be an explosive collision from merging stars”…]

The collision occurred about 1940 years ago, about the end of the first century – around the time of the last Flavian Emperors of Rome, it has just taken the light from then until next year to get to us 😉

The “explosion” happened a long time ago, we just get to see it next year.

[followed by :”What clock are you using to know this happened” …”Time is totally RELATIVE to two objects regarding motion INCLUDING motion of light/information. “… “does NOT mean this event has already happened for observers on earth” ]

Not quite.

True that there is no such thing as simultaneous, but not true that there is no such thing as time.

There is definitely a time relationship between us and those stars, that is given by Einstein’s equations. The uncertainty lies in knowing exactly how far away the stars were both back then and now – and that uncertainty spans about 30 years at present, so the explosion happened about 1940 years ago in our reference frame (with an uncertainty of +/- 30 years). For other observers, travelling at relativistic speeds with respect to us, they may observe a different time relationship, but that relationship is still defined by Einstein’s equations. The uncertainty does not come from the equations, but rather from our measurement techniques.

About Ted Howard NZ

Seems like I might be a cancer survivor. Thinking about the systemic incentives within the world we find ourselves in, and how we might adjust them to provide an environment that supports everyone (no exceptions) - see www.tedhowardnz.com/money
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