Covid vaccine

Lifeboat foundation facebook link to
BBC report – Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection got a response “All Fake ….”

[ 10/11/20 ]

I can’t say for certain that it isn’t fake, and I have not been able to find any published data, but the news agency reports seem to have reasonable credibility, so I would say, based upon what limited data I have at present, that it seems likely that it is not “All Fake…”

It seems probable that this vaccine does actually work to a reasonable degree (90% is reasonably good); and this virus is capable of quite rapid mutation – so even after the vaccine is deployed, contact tracing and isolation would still be required to keep the vaccine effective.

So it is a really complex situation.

Nothing “simple” about it.

And there are so many levels of political and economic pressure to distort what signal actually exists.

It is very difficult to make sense of much at all in the context we now exist in – it has so many different levels of complex systems, and at each level there are many different classes of systems present. The situation is far more complex than any computational entity (human or AI) can deal with in detail, all any of us can do is work with probabilities and reassess those as new information becomes available.

About Ted Howard NZ

Seems like I might be a cancer survivor. Thinking about the systemic incentives within the world we find ourselves in, and how we might adjust them to provide an environment that supports everyone (no exceptions) - see www.tedhowardnz.com/money
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