On Giovanni’s Facebook page – After he posted some statistics on California Covid cases.
[ 6/8/20 ]
In New Zealand we have only had 1569 cases to date, and for the last 3 months the only ones have been in managed isolation facilities at the border, and our death rates are similar.
No deaths below age 60.
60-69 – 1.6%
70-79 – 8.8%
80-89 – 23.3%
90+ – 55.5%
Over the entire population 1.4%.
Given that we have eliminated it from the population, we are reasonably confident that those figures are accurate, and there are very few (if any) cases that have been missed.
[followed by after Sid mentioned the cost of after effects]
I was talking last week to a friend who’s mother got Covid19 in England.
Prior to getting it she was engaged in intellectual life, and spoke 4 languages fluently.
Right now she is in a dementia care home, unable to speak, with no prognosis of recovery.
She is not in the death statistics.
I was talking about a month ago to one of the locals in my town who got it, and after two months he still felt weak and unfit to work.
[followed by – in response to a claim that asymptomatic carriers are common.]
In NZ, the figures seem to be accurate.
Every identified case was contact traced, and all contacts were isolated and tested.
We have had no community transmission cases in 3 months.
We are still doing about 3,000 tests per day of anyone who requests one; and everyone who has had contact with an infected person (still getting one or two a day at the border).
Isolation for 2 weeks at the border has worked. No cases have gotten through to restart community transmission as yet (it is always a possibility, but it has not happened in 3 months).
Actual asymptomatic cases seem to be very rare, though many are pre-symptomatic when they transmit it- and the symptoms come later. Which is one of the reasons why everyone wearing masks is a very good idea.