Covid-19 deaths and dangers

On Giovanni’s Facebook page – After he posted some statistics on California Covid cases.

[ 6/8/20 ]

In New Zealand we have only had 1569 cases to date, and for the last 3 months the only ones have been in managed isolation facilities at the border, and our death rates are similar.

No deaths below age 60.
60-69 – 1.6%
70-79 – 8.8%
80-89 – 23.3%
90+ – 55.5%

Over the entire population 1.4%.

Given that we have eliminated it from the population, we are reasonably confident that those figures are accurate, and there are very few (if any) cases that have been missed.

[followed by after Sid mentioned the cost of after effects]

Good point.

I was talking last week to a friend who’s mother got Covid19 in England.

Prior to getting it she was engaged in intellectual life, and spoke 4 languages fluently.

Right now she is in a dementia care home, unable to speak, with no prognosis of recovery.

She is not in the death statistics.

I was talking about a month ago to one of the locals in my town who got it, and after two months he still felt weak and unfit to work.

[followed by – in response to a claim that asymptomatic carriers are common.]

In NZ, the figures seem to be accurate.

Every identified case was contact traced, and all contacts were isolated and tested.

We have had no community transmission cases in 3 months.

We are still doing about 3,000 tests per day of anyone who requests one; and everyone who has had contact with an infected person (still getting one or two a day at the border).

Isolation for 2 weeks at the border has worked. No cases have gotten through to restart community transmission as yet (it is always a possibility, but it has not happened in 3 months).

Actual asymptomatic cases seem to be very rare, though many are pre-symptomatic when they transmit it- and the symptoms come later. Which is one of the reasons why everyone wearing masks is a very good idea.

About Ted Howard NZ

Seems like I might be a cancer survivor. Thinking about the systemic incentives within the world we find ourselves in, and how we might adjust them to provide an environment that supports everyone (no exceptions) - see www.tedhowardnz.com/money
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