Tom’s post suggesting covid is a political thing

[Tom posted an image of death rates in democrat vs republican states.]

[ 23/5/20 ]

How did the democrats organise all the deaths in Britain, France, Italy, …..

Get real Tom.

Look at the whole picture!

[followed by Tom replied – You are so naive, like a little boy in the big big world.]

And unfortunately you are so paranoid you can no longer separate fact from fiction.

Sure – there are no shortage of real conspiracies in the world – lots of them.

And not everything is a conspiracy.

Some things are just biology doing what biology has done for billions of years.

This Covid 19 has all the hallmarks of biology doing what it does.

In NZ we have it under control – by strict lockdown and quarantine.

We treated it seriously, early, as a biological pandemic.

Only 21 people out of 5 million died.

Over 250,000 tests have been performed, and 1504 cases identified. Only 28 of those are still active, 1455 have recovered. Just one new case in the last week, and that linked to the last active cluster in Auckland.

We treated it seriously from early on.

We had over 99% voluntary compliance, because there was clear open communication from government and scientists and bureaucrats on a daily basis. Serious questions were asked, and answered seriously. Trust was maintained – for the most part.

You guys are treating it as a political conspiracy and it is beating you.

We treated it as biology and we beat it.

[followed by Tom came back blaming it on 5G]

5G has nothing – Zero – Zip – Nada – to do with Covid – of that I am 99.99+% confident.

You are looking for conspiracies in the wrong places Tom.

Favor – that is a real possibility. Definite evidence of something very interesting there, though not enough evidence to say what.

5G is about low latency. That’s it.

So many much better surveillance technologies already possible and present. As a surveillance technology it is almost useless, it is absorbed too quickly by too many different sorts of molecules. It’s only advantage is precisely that, in that it allows for multiple high bandwidth low latency communication networks to coexist in densely populated areas without interference (they get absorbed so quickly that it works). In places like where I live it is totally useless – as the density of people is far too low – and we need systems that can be useful at a minimum range of 30km (my nearest city is 2 hours drive away).

The power levels involved are tiny. Heating effects minimal.

Sure – don’t sit on one, but sitting 1m away should be perfectly safe, unless it is a big one, in which case 3m should be safe enough.

Do you have any real idea how difficult it is to actually keep a secret – really.

I have no doubt at all that there are real secrets, and real conspiracies, but most things are not that.

Sure, there are multiple levels of groups and understandings and plans in reality – that is and always has been true.

Today there are probably more than a dozen levels of awareness and planning coexistent and not necessarily aligned. So far as I am concerned our security exists in that diversity and independence/interdependence.

Vaccination is only critical for the elderly and the immuno-compromised.

No way is Covid-19 an excuse for universal vaccination. That idea just does not hold water.

When the vaccines are ready, it will be those over 65 for whom it is most recommended, and most urgent, or anyone with any immune activated condition. For everyone else it will be completely optional.

You are seeing conspiracies in everything Tom. That is not good.

Sure – look for conspiracies – there are some, they are important and real, but they are also relatively few in number. Almost everything that happens is not the result of conspiracy, but of a vast array of other causes (which always have existed and always will exist).

The mortality numbers are always depending on context.

Change in behaviour changes context – which is entirely the point of change.

If the USA stops taking covid seriously, and goes back to business as usual, then the death toll from Covid-19 in the USA will reach 2 million by the end of this year. That is real prediction.

It has already killed close to twice as many Americans in 3 months as the Vietnam war did in a decade, and that is with the measures that you are complaining about. Remove them, and the death rate in the over 75s will be close to 20% – without a vaccine.

Death rate has a density dependent function. The more people around you who have it, the greater the chance of dying from it. As you decrease the density (and thence the rate of receiving multiple novel infection sources from other people) you increase the probability of the immune systems being able to cope with it.

All really basic biology – if someone actually understands biology (which very few people do).

This over active conspiracy nonsense of yours will contribute to the death of millions if you continue it.

That is a very sad truth!!!

Though we have never met in person, we have interacted a lot over the last 20 years, and I have a lot to be very grateful to you for, hence I have continued to do my very best to communicate with you.

The sensemaking ecology in America is so broken, so corrupted, it is no real surprise that you believe as you do, because almost everything published is false at some level, for a whole slew of different sets of reasons that have nothing to do with conspiracy as such, but drive directly from the fundamental incentive sets present – the inadequate myths that are promoted (religious, economic, political, philosophical).

I’ve spent about an hour and half 6 days a week for the last 3 weeks in virtual meetings on covid-19 hosted in the US, so have a reasonable handle on things. Plus a couple of hours a day working on my own datasets. I have talked to people in England, France, Wales, USA who have lost loved ones to this disease.

It is not fake.

[followed by Tom responded – Yours is the evening news, Ted. Puts me to sleep]

I guess the only way we’ll get some idea is reviewing this in a year’s time.

Sometimes Ockham works.

[Tom replied – What I see is you like safe positions ….]

Every government security system has black operations, by definition. They do not want people knowing what they do.

I know people who work in such organisations. They don’t tell me details (they wouldn’t continue to work there if they did), but I know they are smart, I know their general interest sets and competencies, so can draw inferences.

I know many different labs have developed bio-weapons that I can only hope and trust never get released. That has been true for 50 years, and is even more so with gene-drive technologies.

Again – same as above.

I have had personal death threats many times, from many different groups – some of which I have taken very seriously (including 1 from the US). Of course I have certain levels of anxiety. And in a sense everything comes down to a balance of terrors.

Which thing poses the greatest risk, what is the best option I have in current situation, how can I most effectively reduce the greatest number of risk by the greatest amount over the longest term, and still survive???

I have no tools to effectively communicate what goes on inside my head. There are no agreed symbols for such things – they are too uncommon.

Nimmitz class carriers project a certain type of power.

Attack subs and missile subs a different sort of power.

Bioweapons are something else again.

The sun is seriously scary – it could wipe out most satellites and most power grids any day.

The risks are huge!!!

And we are a fundamentally cooperative species. That is something that most people really don’t get – yet.

This myth of survival all being about competition is the greatest conspiracy present in society.

If you want conspiracy – that is #1.

Trust is our only path to survival.

But who to trust, and in what contexts???

Look at the values I continue to write. I put many hundreds of hours into choosing those precise words – many levels of depths to them.
#1 – Sapient life, human and non-human, biological and non-biological.
#2 – the freedom of all sapient entities, to do whatever they responsibly choose. And responsibility always contains uncertainty, and must always consider social and ecological consequences.

About Ted Howard NZ

Seems like I might be a cancer survivor. Thinking about the systemic incentives within the world we find ourselves in, and how we might adjust them to provide an environment that supports everyone (no exceptions) - see www.tedhowardnz.com/money
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