Convid-19 discussion on facebook with a naysayer

[ 30/3/20 – on a Facebook Group]

Until there is a vaccine (at least a year away) or enough test kits for everyone to test every 2 weeks, or some other reliable cure available at scale – then isolation is the only way to contain a pandemic such as this for which we have no effective treatment at scale at present.

Without effective isolation or a cure – something close to 20 million Americans are likely to die from this.

Uncontrolled the death rate is around 6% of the population (it is already way higher than that in Italy), with many of those who do recover having lung damage for life.

I am all for life and liberty – and life comes first, for without it there is no liberty.

[followed by]

If the hospital system becomes overwhelmed, and oxygen supplementation is not available, then about 6% of those people infected die.

That is a fact.

If the outbreak is not contained by isolation, then most Americans will catch it.

Once the number of people requiring hospitalisation exceeds the capacity of the available hospitals, people start to die in large numbers (as see in Italy and Spain and many other places).

20 million is 6% of Americans.

If it gets out of control, that is what you are looking at.

If you heed the warnings, and isolate to contain it, then it wont be anything like that bad.

But that is the reality present.

Call me all the names you want, but it wont change the facts.

[followed by]

Italy is currently 11% of reported cases end in death.

Spain is currently 8.5% of reported cases end in death.

Containment is starting to work in both countries, the numbers of new cases are dropping, but the effective death rate will probably continue to rise slightly in both countries as there are still many people in the early stages of infection who are yet to reach critical.

Look at the numbers.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html is a really good site with lots of links to other good sites.

Sit down.

Do the math.

About Ted Howard NZ

Seems like I might be a cancer survivor. Thinking about the systemic incentives within the world we find ourselves in, and how we might adjust them to provide an environment that supports everyone (no exceptions) - see www.tedhowardnz.com/money
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