Quora – Are we currently able to make quantitative predictions about the future based on the theory of evolution?

Quora – Are we currently able to make quantitative predictions about the future based on the theory of evolution?

Depends what you mean.

If you mean hard numbers about exactly what the future will look like, then the answer is no, that is not how it works.

If you mean general classes of prediction with high probability, then yes – some of those are possible, like:

If we continue to promote competitive systems, then freedom for the majority will decrease and risk for everyone will increase.

If we choose to develop cooperative systems, then we can evolve futures that will deliver both freedom and security to very high levels.

That is the clear outcome of an understanding of the modern synthesis of evolution, and the systemic roles of competition and cooperation in evolving systems. Competition always drives systems to some set of minima on the available complexity landscape.

Human beings are fundamentally cooperative organisms, which is why we have been so amazingly successful to date. Our current economic systems are built upon scarcity based values, and drive us towards competitive rather than cooperative modalities. Until recently we have been able to obtain reasonable security in a set of hybrid systems that support some scales of cooperation, but advanced automation is fundamentally altering the systemic underpinnings of those hybrid systems. Unless we make a conscious and deliberate set of choices to move to global cooperation (with individual life and individual liberty as our highest values), then the likely outcomes are not pretty for the vast majority of humanity (and the risk profiles for everyone go up as turmoil increases).

About Ted Howard NZ

Seems like I might be a cancer survivor. Thinking about the systemic incentives within the world we find ourselves in, and how we might adjust them to provide an environment that supports everyone (no exceptions) - see www.tedhowardnz.com/money
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