Quora – prediction

Is there any research for an invention that could predict the future?

That is kind of what investors try to do.

And a modern understanding of uncertainty and complexity and chaos demonstrate that there are many classes of complex system that are not predictable either in theory or in practice.

So we have this spectrum of predictability.

Some things are extremely reliable, with uncertainties at very low levels, and are for all practical purposes predictable – modern computers are a good example.

Some things contain moderate levels of uncertainty, and can still be thought of as generally predictable, but with occasional “errors”.

Some things (like weather) can contain quite high levels of uncertainty, when it comes to predicting how much rain will fall at your house in any particular hour or minute.
Some things simply cannot be predicted – like the decay of any particular radioactive atom. All we can give is a probability statement.

A lot of dealing with human behaviour can be predicted only in terms of probability statements.

A lot of uncertainty exists in what we don’t know that we don’t know, and may discover in the very near future. That is actually getting exponentially more important for all of us.

So we can look at trends, and have some general ideas about some things, and other things are likely to occur as unexpected by most people. And that seems likely to be eternally true. That just seems to be the nature of the reality within which we find ourselves.

We may live in a reality of finite entities, and we also seem to live in a reality of infinite possibilities. Those two things seem to only be possible if there is a fundamental uncertainty relationship in the boundary conditions between the two domains. It seems that aspects of those uncertainty relationships must eternally defy prediction.

About Ted Howard NZ

Seems like I might be a cancer survivor. Thinking about the systemic incentives within the world we find ourselves in, and how we might adjust them to provide an environment that supports everyone (no exceptions) - see www.tedhowardnz.com/money
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