My Xmas facebook message

My Christmas facebook message

Happy and prosperous times Everyone!

I am not religious, and all my understandings relating to reality are probability based. And I am very clear about the outcome spaces of complex systems and complex strategic sets – that if the environment can support universal abundance, then cooperation will always deliver better long term outcomes for everyone than any form of competition.
I am confident that our exponentially expanding technological capabilities are allowing us to do more with less, faster than our populations are growing.

I am also clear that market based values (exchange values, money and capital), being based in scarcity, are fundamentally antithetical to cooperation on this universal scale.

So in the interests of everyone (even those at the very top of the current economic system), we need to evolve a path to a set of systems that deliver all the basics of survival and freedom to every person on the planet. Then, within reasonable limits, what they do with it is up to them.

So I am confident, beyond any shadow of reasonable doubt, that our exponentially expanding technology can deliver a future where everyone experiences a great life, and I am not nearly so confident that we will actually do it. And I do give it a better than 50/50 chance, which is the most confident I have been in the last 53 years.

So have a great day, and a great future, and do whatever little bits you can to be part of the solution, rather than part of the problem.
Generousity, love, respect, tolerance – these are great things.

And we all need to be alert to cheating at all levels, and to developing ever more powerful strategies to ensure that all the benefits of cheating strategies are removed (plus a little bit), and that the person who previously used the cheating strategy is welcome back into the cooperative.

[followed by
Caspar asked:
What are the costs to a believer in this faith?
]

That is a very good question. (Like most questions you ask 😉 ).
Faith is perhaps too strong a word.

I rather suspect that many dimensions of understanding are contained within Joi Ito’s presentation in this link:
http://boingboing.net/2016/12/06/whiplash-joi-itos-nine-prin.html
and within David Snowden’s approaches here:
https://youtu.be/N7oz366X0-8
and here
https://youtu.be/gaFQJaQTXhY

I love Ito’s question: “How do you participate responsibly in a system that you cannot predict and whose outcomes to your intervention are almost random?”

I suspect there is somewhat less randomness than that question indicates under most conditions, and there are certainly random, chaotic, and maximally computationally complex aspects that are exponentially more important.

I strongly suspect that the levels of understanding potentially available are potentially infinitely recursively complex, which drives one towards halting problems in all dimensions if one takes a first principles computational approach. Thus one is left with levels of selecting heuristics in building the models one uses as experiential reality.

Big question is, in a time of exponential change involving the emergence of new levels, are the heuristics of the past appropriate to the future, and if not, how do we most powerfully select effective sets of heuristics to navigate with?
Those of Plato and Newton are appropriate in limited domains, and clearly falsified in the wider domains now present.

Interesting times.

About Ted Howard NZ

Seems like I might be a cancer survivor. Thinking about the systemic incentives within the world we find ourselves in, and how we might adjust them to provide an environment that supports everyone (no exceptions) - see www.tedhowardnz.com/money
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