It seems clear that the complexity is “off the charts”.
It seems that reward or value for humans derives from multiple overlapping and intersecting and deeply nested sets of survival heuristics encoded at both genetic and mimetic levels (both cultural and individual).
There are not, nor can there be, any absolute guarantees in life. And we can certainly move a lot of probabilities a long way from where they are right now.
While we hold on to markets, and exchange values, we are in grave existential risk territory (with or without AGI) – see https://tedhowardnz.wordpress.com/2016/05/27/money-cartoon/ for my latest thoughts on the issue – there are many others on that site.