It seems clear to me that memory is probably far greater than current estimates and it is a difficult and complex thing.
I experience episodes of eidetic memory, but I do have reliable control of it. But the fact that it happens at all, would seem to put our memory capacity out towards 10^18 or thereabouts (maybe a little higher).
And memory is only one aspect of being human.
I find that the bandwidth available for communication is less than 10^-3 of that available for experience (it seems to me that sometimes it is less than 10^-7). So I can often convey only a very tiny portion of that which I have experienced, even to those who fully get what I am trying to communicate.
Such seems to be the nature of being human.
But even if Ray is off by a factor of 10^8, it is only a little over 20 years on current exponential tracks.
It seems clear to me that indefinite life extension will be a reality long before uploads, the task is many orders of magnitude less complex, as all cells must already contain the necessary systems, it is just a switching issue to be understood and modified – the fact that every cell alive is part of an unbroken chain of cellular life some 4 billion years old makes that rather obvious (when considered in that context).
There will then rapidly evolve very diverse populations of various degrees of augmentation graduating smoothly from highly connected human intelligences into machine intelligences. Diversity in many dimensions seems to be the most probable and most stable outcome.
Meme-sets that cannot tolerate such diversity, and pose an active threat to more tolerant and capable meme-sets, will need to be monitored and restrained as a result of the threat profile the present.
I strongly suspect that we need to start actively working towards a replacement for the idea of work long before then.
We already are able to automate most processes to a level that is better than most people do them now. And that is a highly recursive notion that requires a bit of processing time.
My son spent several years after graduation applying for jobs. When he did eventually get paid employment, he beat 200 other applicants. Its tough out there.
When we have such abundance of capacity?
The concept sets in use are no longer a close fit to reality, and they have a certain social inertia.
It was just a reference to Rays predictions about singularity, which is a recurrent theme in most discussions on this site.
I align with most of Rays work on trends, we just differ on some of the assumption sets that underlie the interpretive schema we use to interpret the likely outcomes.
And for most practical purposes Ray seems to be close enough.
It seems to me we could defeat age related loss of function very much sooner with a little more directed effort, and that topic is not directly related.
[On an even less directly related issue, I would love to be working with Calico, with a blue skies role, with full access to any datasets and any research papers I wanted. That is close to my dream role. My body is sensitised to polycyclic aromatics as a result of a childhood poisoning incident, so I can’t do lab work; but I can do conceptual work.]