All such projection and modelling is entirely dependent upon the assumptions used.
Unfortunately very few people are aware of the depth of the assumptions present in our every-day models of reality (our experiential reality).
Markets are money are just ideas – mental tools. They had a certain historical utility. They have a certain reality mediated by the belief people have in them.
All there really is, at any instant, are people, their beliefs, their likely actions, the tools they have, the energy and materials available, and the rest of the biological and cosmological reality we find ourselves in.
We can build automated systems that could meet any and every human demand for the products of that system – yet we don’t, because we think of things in terms of profit and exchange (why give anything to anyone if they are not going to give you something you consider more valuable – that is the fundamental ethic of the market place).
Automation can deliver real freedom to everyone.
Automation can mean that every individual on the planet gets the real choice to cooperate with whomsoever they choose, to do anything that they responsibly choose.
Responsibility in this sense requires only that we show real respect for the life and freedom of others (which by implication requires a duty of care for the environmental systems that sustain us all).
Markets are based in the idea of scarcity.
Automation allows us to deliver abundance.
Automation in a market based set of values delivers horrors.
Automation in a human based set of values delivers freedom, security and prosperity for all.
All that is in the way is a way of thinking.
It really is that simple.
And in another aspect, most people have been trained to obey, to conform, not to think for themselves or to challenge authority in any meaningful way.
In terms of birth control – just look at what happens when you deliver real wealth to women – most choose to have less than two babies.
When people have real choice, when they have the freedom to travel where and when they want, to do whatever the responsibly choose – babies are a huge restriction on that freedom.
I don’t believe that the horror scenarios are as probable as many think.
Changing ways of thinking poses some real challenges, and that technology exists.
It never ceases to amaze me the degree to which people will defend the prisons that they are comfortable with.
And being comfortable in a prison doesn’t make it any less a prison.